INSA Poll Analysis for August 5, 2026: Voting Intent, Emigration Plans, and Chancellor Run-Off Scenarios

This analysis of the latest INSA opinion trend walks through the current state of German voting intent as of August 5, 2026, after a one-week break. Beyond the standard Sunday question, it covers emigration intentions, hypothetical direct elections for chancellor, and how respondents would vote in state elections. Each topic is broken down by party, age group, and region so you can see how the numbers shift across different segments.

■ Voting intent and parliamentary majorities
- Changes in party support and which parties clear the five-percent threshold
- Possible coalition arithmetic and how much margin those majorities carry
- Support for each party across age groups, from under 30 to over 70
■ Emigration intentions
- Share of respondents who plan to leave Germany within the next five years
- Differences by age and by party affiliation
■ Hypothetical direct election for chancellor
- Match-ups involving the incumbent and a party-internal rival against the AfD chair
- Comparison of the two scenarios and how each candidate is received by their own voters
■ State election voting intent
- Overall figures compared with federal-level voting intent
- Differences between the western and eastern federal states ahead of the September elections

The video is aimed at viewers who want a structured, numbers-focused read on German polling trends and coalition arithmetic. It concludes with information on the interactive tools and analyses available through the INSA subscription, and what to watch for in the coming weeks.