Gulf Oil Flows Recover to Over 80% of Pre-War Levels as Diesel Risks Persist

The discussion examines the recovery of Gulf oil flows to more than 80% of pre-war levels and its effect on global oil prices, based on shipping data and an interview with Kepler senior analyst Navin Das.

■ Gulf supply recovery and prices
- Oil flows exceed 80% of pre-war levels; Saudi exports rebound after pipeline attack
- G7 emergency release of 100 million barrels; Middle East supply at 5–5.5 million bpd

■ Iran and market uncertainty
- Iran’s influence may be weakened; attacks and higher shipping costs persist
- Sustainability remains uncertain; critical juncture before US midterm elections

■ Refined product risks
- Diesel and middle distillates remain tight; exports at 50–60% of pre-war levels
- Refineries shift output among jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline; jet fuel improves while diesel stays critical

Viewers seeking a concise update on Gulf oil supply, diesel and jet fuel markets, and geopolitical risk factors will gain an overview of current constraints and recovery indicators. Continued monitoring of shipping data, refinery output, and diplomatic developments is suggested.