Fed Policy Outlook and Big Tech Earnings: Insights from State Street Markets

This discussion examines two major themes shaping markets this week: whether the Federal Reserve can justify holding interest rates steady amid stickier-than-expected inflation, and whether Alphabet and Microsoft can deliver earnings strong enough to sustain optimism around the AI trade. Tim Graf, managing director and head of macro strategy at State Street Markets, shares his perspective on the Fed's next moves, dissent among policymakers, and what investors need to hear from big tech.

■ Fed Rate Decision and Inflation
- Whether the Fed has enough justification to pause rate hikes, and expectations for future increases
- How the central bank may address hotter-than-expected inflation data
- The likelihood of additional dissents from policymakers at this meeting
- Whether reduced forward guidance could fuel more hawkish rate bets

■ AI Investment Boom and Market Risk
- How the trajectory of AI spending affects interest rate policy
- Conditions under which the Fed could respond if AI-related investment slows

■ Big Tech Earnings Expectations
- What Alphabet and Microsoft need to report to satisfy investors
- How market definitions of "good enough" growth continue to shift

Ideal for investors and market participants seeking a macro-level understanding of current Federal Reserve policy dynamics and big tech earnings expectations. Viewers can gain a clearer framework for interpreting this week's Fed decision and corporate results and how the two developments interact.