How Accurate Are Election Polls? A Look at the Last Decade

A review of how polling matched election results over the past decade examines whether polls can be trusted in the final stretch of an election. The discussion compares presidential and midterm cycles and explains why their polling records may differ.

- Polling errors in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential elections
- Polling accuracy in the 2018 and 2022 midterms, and factors that can affect who responds to polls
- How to interpret the current polling average; historical comparisons are not a prediction of the election outcome

For viewers following election polling, this overview offers context for interpreting polling averages and accounting for differences between election types. Consider the election cycle and remember that polling figures can change as Election Day approaches.