IBM Vice Chair Gary Cohn on Fed Policy, the Midterms, Iran, and Market Volatility

IBM Vice Chair and former National Economic Council director Gary Cohn discusses the forces shaping the current economic and market environment, including Federal Reserve policy, inflation dynamics, the midterm elections, Iran, and the AI buildout. The conversation covers how time may affect oil and energy inflation, the limits of interest rate policy, and how election outcomes connect to fiscal policy.

■ Fed Policy and Inflation
- December rate decision expectations and the data-dependent stance
- Oil and energy inflation on a year-over-year basis, refined products, and the crack spread
- The limited levers the Fed has, and where demand-side pressure currently sits

■ Elections and Fiscal Policy
- Polling reliability and prediction markets
- Lame duck session priorities: debt ceiling, government funding, and a potential reconciliation package
- How election outcomes may carry through to policy

■ AI Buildout and Markets
- Corporate investment in AI and its effect on earnings and stock moves
- Chip and energy inventory constraints around data center demand

This is aimed at viewers following macroeconomics, monetary policy, and markets who want a discussion of how these topics interact. Watching provides context for evaluating Fed decisions, inflation trends, and policy risks as events develop.