Fed Rate Expectations, Energy Shocks, and Treasury Market Positioning

David Zervos, former chief market strategist at Jefferies and current advisor in the Treasury Secretary’s office, joins the discussion ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision. The conversation examines why market expectations for Fed action have remained stable despite hotter inflation data and geopolitical headline risk, and how energy prices are shaping Treasury yields and market positioning.

■ Federal Reserve outlook
- Expectations for the upcoming rate decision
- Sensitivity to geopolitical headlines and inflation data

■ Energy and inflation
- Oil price shock and its link to 10-year Treasury yields
- Core CPI, PPI, and second-order effects

■ Market positioning and risks
- Treasury market response to recent data
- Potential path for yields if energy pressures ease

Viewers following macro markets, Fed policy, and fixed income can use the discussion to frame how energy and positioning may influence rate expectations. It offers context rather than specific trading recommendations.