Prediction Markets and Election Integrity: How Kalshi and Polymarket Odds Are Shaped and Scrutinized

Prediction markets have become a major feature of U.S. election coverage, with billions wagered on races and millions of viewers treating the odds as information sources. This report examines what unusual price movements on Kalshi and Polymarket reveal, how platforms and outside analysts investigate them, and what regulators, election officials, and researchers say about their effect on public trust.

■ How Prediction Markets Work
- Contract pricing from one cent to 99 cents, and how implied probability relates to payout
- Growing use of Kalshi and Polymarket as an information source, including viewer-to-trader ratios

■ Price Spikes and Anomalies
- The Los Angeles mayoral primary and price patterns around one candidate
- Case studies of sudden jumps in congressional and Senate race contracts, and why some trades carry no profit motive
- Findings from an anti-corruption data group on how easily thin markets can be moved

■ Platform Oversight and Transparency
- Kalshi's internal enforcement process and CFTC-regulated market structure
- Polymarket's blockchain-based record keeping and its tracking partnership with a blockchain analytics firm
- A case involving alleged insider trading on Polymarket and how it was surfaced

■ Regulation and Election Officials
- State laws on betting on election outcomes, and the dispute over whether they apply to exchanges
- Calls for restrictions, including concerns about poll workers and election staff
- How platforms respond to claims about price correction and accuracy

Those interested in elections, market regulation, or how data-driven odds shape public perception will come away with a clearer picture of what the numbers do and do not tell you. Consider watching alongside ongoing election coverage to place the claims and counterclaims in context.